TrapMetricsSeptember evidence update: 13,018 races, and what moved
This month's snapshot of the settled record: the top-pick comparison with Timeform on 13,018 held-out races, the straight-forecast study, and one number we corrected.
Once a month the figures on this site are recomputed from the settled record, and the date goes beside every number. This is the first snapshot under that routine, dated 11 September 2026.
The top-pick comparison
On 13,018 held-out races since 1 January, racing the model never trained on, the TrapMetrics top pick won 32.3% of the time. The Timeform forecast favourite won 28.7% of the same races. That is 3.6 percentage points, with a 95% interval of 2.7 to 4.5.
The Betfair favourite won 37.0%. The closing market beats every rating we have measured, ours included, and we show that number beside ours every time.
What changed in how we count
The August figure was 30.5% against 27.7%, on 8,012 races. The count is now stricter in two ways. A race only counts if every runner that ran has a rating, a Timeform forecast and a Betfair SP, so nothing is compared on a partial field. And when two dogs share top spot in a forecast, a winner among them scores a share of the credit rather than depending on which one happened to be listed first. The gap to Timeform widened slightly under the stricter rules, which is the direction you want a result to move when you tighten the test.
The straight-forecast study
Since 4 August, when the Racing Post forecast joined the morning capture, 3,887 races have settled with every source available. The model's most likely pair landed the straight forecast 10.9% of the time, Timeform's 9.2% and the Racing Post's 9.1%. A blend of all three landed 11.3%, which is why the racecard shows a consensus forecast.
A hit rate is not a return. The forecast pool keeps about 28% of every pound staked, and no grade, distance or agreement filter we have tested gets past that.
One number we corrected
Several pages said the System Builder tests rules against 1.56 million runs. That count included dogs declared but not run. The Builder actually tests against 1,512,527 runs with a result, in 267,046 races since June 2021, and the pages now say so.
Questions this piece answers
How often are the evidence figures updated?
Once a month, at the start of the month, by the same queries every time. The date of the snapshot is printed beside every figure on the site.
Why did the top-pick figure change from 30.5% to 32.3%?
Two reasons. There are more races in the held-out window than in August, and the count is now stricter: only complete fields, with joint favourites sharing the credit. The gap to Timeform widened slightly under the stricter count.
Does this mean TrapMetrics beats the market?
No. The Betfair favourite won 37.0% of the same races, more than our top pick. The closing market beats every rating we have measured, ours included.