Trap bias at Hove: which traps actually win

Trap bias at Hove measured on 5,924 races over 2 years: share of wins by trap against fair share, by distance and by grade, with the noise called noise.

Over the last 2 years at Hove, 5,924 races, trap 1 has been a clear plus at +2.9 points against its fair share and trap 5 a clear minus at -2.3; the other traps sit inside noise. The track is 455 metres round with 105 metres to the first bend, measured from our own split times.

All distances

Trap 1 is a clear plus at Hove: it wins 21.4% of races against a fair share of 18.5%, +2.9 points on 5,799 runs. Trap 2 sits inside noise at -0.5 points. Trap 3 sits inside noise at -0.3 points. Trap 4 sits inside noise at -0.9 points. Trap 5 is a clear minus: 9.1% of wins against a fair share of 11.4%, -2.3 points on 3,572 runs. Trap 6 sits inside noise at +1.2 points.

By distance

Only distances with at least 1,500 runs get their own chart; a bias that shows at one trip and not another is usually the run to the first bend at work.

500 metres, 4,635 races

Trap 1 is a clear plus at Hove: it wins 21.1% of races against a fair share of 18.7%, +2.4 points on 4,558 runs. Trap 2 sits inside noise at -0.4 points. Trap 3 sits inside noise at -0.4 points. Trap 4 sits inside noise at -0.5 points. Trap 5 is a clear minus: 8.5% of wins against a fair share of 10.7%, -2.2 points on 2,603 runs. Trap 6 sits inside noise at +1.0 points.

285 metres, 877 races

Trap 1 is a clear plus at Hove: it wins 21.3% of races against a fair share of 17.9%, +3.4 points on 843 runs. Trap 2 sits inside noise at -1.5 points. Trap 3 sits inside noise at -0.2 points. Trap 4 sits inside noise at -1.8 points. Trap 5 sits inside noise at -1.4 points. Trap 6 sits inside noise at +1.5 points.

By grade

Grade letters grouped: A for graded races, D for sprints and dashes where the track uses them, S for stayers, and so on.

Bias in points against fair share; * marks a clear bias.

The market and the fields

The Betfair favourite won 36.9% of 5,892 priced races here over the window. 42% of races went off with six runners; the rest had a vacant trap, which is why fair share is measured on runs and not assumed to be one sixth.

How to read this

Fair share is each trap's share of the runs, so a vacant trap 6 does not hand trap 5 a bias. A bias is called clear only when it is at least 1.5 points and at least 2.5 standard errors from fair on the runs behind it; anything smaller is a difference inside noise, and the page says so. The window is the last 2 years, refreshed whenever this page is rebuilt. The live version, with the going and our own accuracy at this track, is on the track page.